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10 Predictions for 2009 - Experts are wrong

Posted by Steve Dalton | 01/04/2009 6:37 AM

CATEGORY: Policy, Rebuild/Fixing our movement, Social Networks - Blogosphere

TAGS: ,

 

10 Predictions not commonly held

I liked this idea, which I picked up while reading RSS feed from The Big Picture
Refers to 20 Surprises for 2009 by Doug Kass

And my list:
  1. Housing recovery has already started, and will become big story in 2009. Home building will remain sluggish while inventories slowly drop.
  2. Stock market rally in first quarter to 12,000 Dow ... with big stories dominated by mergers and acquisitions
  3. Even though Federal Government gave out cash to GM and Chrysler, both will file bankruptcy in 2nd quarter, with GM being purchased by Ford and Chrysler by Toyota. This will break the union contracts and allow steel, textiles, and other union dominated industries to begin re-organizing labor contracts.
  4. Mortgage rates will hang at 5% till end of March, with refinance boom helping dodge Alt-A reset crisis, but then start going up as "economic recovery" news causes inflation to become more certain
  5. Oil will go back up to $80 by June 2009, the dollar will strengthen though. The US will lead the global recovery thus the dollar strength. Oil demand issues will recover traction thus the oil strength.
  6. Conservative groups will continue rapid growth - #TCOT, #dontgo, #rebuild, and collaborative projects will push to hyperlocal since local races in 2009 and 2010 are more important than national ... ie. local state house control of re-districting in Indiana
  7. Obama will be tied in knots, one the one side his radical left support, on the other the great middle of America that only heard "change" ... he will accomplish very little in 2009 and 2010 ... which frankly will be good for America
  8. Governments all over the country will actually have to cut budgets, and cut deeply. This will be the first time in decades that budgets actually get cut. Some politicians will lose in 2010 merely because they couldn't deliver pork for the first time.
  9. Hyper local blogger collaboration will hurt traffic to individual bloggers, with a rush to get added to collaborative projects. Monetization will only work in collaborative aggregates, with traffic and advertising connections. See circa 2006 model Northwest Indiana bloggers, old news. I better move or I'm dead in the water too.
  10. Massive unemployment will actually be good for the economy, with consulting and home based contractors niche growing substantially. Companies will hire the work they actually need and leave the extras to the side as unecessary overhead. The fast and connected will not only survive but grow, the lazy and entitled will be left far far behind.

What are your predictions for 2009? Disagree with me, cool comment or email me, the engagement is more important than the prophesy.

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Downsizing the Federal Government Video

Posted by Steve Dalton | 12/30/2008 8:07 PM

CATEGORY: FEATURE, Policy

TAGS: , ,

 
From the Cato Institute


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Myth - we should all rent our homes #TCOT

Posted by Steve Dalton | 12/29/2008 9:36 AM

CATEGORY: Policy

TAGS: , , ,

 

Myth - A nation of renters

Some of you know I'm working on a book project, A Conservative on the 2009 Housing Recovery, and today specifically the second chapter which details commonly held myths about housing. Here's a bit of Myth Number One - would appreciate any feedback positive or negative.

Chapter Two- 10 Myths about housing


Myth One - It would be better for more families to rent their homes


This is a catagorical insult to the American ideal. We may as well suggest that Americans would be better off if only landowners voted, or if the government controlled all health care, or any other list of nonsensical mental excursions that end up in socialism or worse. The AMERICAN DREAM has been and must continue to be that a family can own their own home. For a few transitory households renting may make some sense at times and in certain seasons. But for the most part every family should have the opportunity to purchase a home. President Bush announced goals of attaining record levels of homeownership in excess of 78% of all households, these were great goals and his leadership should not be faulted merely because housing values have slid. It's a good idea to save for retirement, and just because many IRA's and 401K's have reduced in value due to stock values, this does not mean people should stop saving for retirement.


I hesitate to say this so strongly for fear that do-gooders will then suggest that the government needs to step in to make ownership happen by legislation or regulation. No, no, and a thousands times NO! Families want to buy a home, they want to live out the American Dream of ownership and wealth creation. They don't need the government to tell them to do it or manipulate the markets to make it happen. Builders want to build for first time buyers, and one of their largest obstacles is the government in the form of impact fees and zoning that combats affordable housing. Lenders want to provide mortgages for first time buyers, and help them fix their credit if need be, once again government gets mostly in the way. We cannot legislate the American Dream, isn't that the whole point of our 230 year experiment? The American Dream exists where familes and individuals make decisions for themselves. Government needs to stay out of the way, so they can decide for themselves.


Almost every family I have met over my last 20 years in this industry would be better off owning a home than renting. First, our tax system favors home ownership in that all mortgage interest can be deducted, rent cannot. Second, every payment made in a normal 30 year mortgage helps that family accumulate a little more equity and thus household wealth. Third, the self-confidence and pride instilled in a family when they own their own home is patently American in its ideals and culture. We want to have our own place, a place that is ours and no one else's. Sure there were many families that I met that couldn't quite afford a home yet, or had some credit issues that we needed to work to clean up, or needed totally different jobs to make it all work. But in every case where a family wanted to do the work, to be disciplined to save some money, pick up a second job, contact creditors and work things out, homeownership was possible.


When we fall for the liberal tact of "some just aren't smart enough or astute enough" to own a home, we start down a slippery slope of "us and them" that is not American. There are many families that cannot afford a $500,000 home, but they may well be able to purchase a $65,000 home after six months of saving for down payment and cleaning up credit problems.


One last comment, to my conservative friends reading along, who think I'm being hypocritical using tax law as a reason to buy a home. I will agree that for the most part tax laws should be simplified and flattened. If during this process one day the mortgage interest deduction is eliminated, while taxes are actually reduced and flattened, I will be supportive. I understand that favoring one consumption decision over another is still government manipulation and intervention. Today though, the tax laws do strongly favor purchasing a home over renting, and if we merely eliminate the tax benefit for some environmental or culture correctness that suggests that more people should rent, I won't back it.

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Social Media for Conservatives 10-Day Plan

Posted by Steve Dalton | 12/27/2008 10:36 AM

CATEGORY: Rebuild/Fixing our movement, Social Networks - Blogosphere

TAGS: ,

 

10 day plan - Social Media for Conservatives

I was asked yesterday if I had an outline or plan for a politically active person wanting to get involved in social media? Now, first let me say that the second I write this plan down it will of course get skewered by those that know a lot more than I. I'll try to source the really great socially actives in my posts. So, from today December 27th, 2008 till January 5th 2009 I will write one post per day.

Follow along if you like - The steps will be as easy as I can explain with links to places for lots more details if my method of "esplaining" isn't all that great.

Day One - Social Media for Conservatives (allow 20 minutes)

1. Join Twitter - Go to twitter homepage and sign up. My recommendation would be to use your own name or a nickname you use often. You may have to try a couple different names, if yours is common and already in use. I would not suggest doing the AOL thing and doing your name followed by a number. Too generic and impersonal. You'll need an email address, I think they limit each email to one twitter profile ... of course we all have multiple email addresses and yes some of us also have multiple twitter profiles.

2. Once you're signed up, and this really only takes a matter of minutes. Click my profile Daltonsbriefs and press "follow" ... it would be great if you would go to the bottom of this post and in the comments section tell me you followed and leave your profile name too. Frankly, I have over 2,600 followers and I don't always follow back right away. Sorry.

3. Go to Top Conservatives on Twitter and choose "Get Added" just enter your profile name, remember that profiles have no blanks (perhaps an underscore if you used but no blanks) and email and whether you desire to have a mentor assigned to you.

4. Go to Search.Twitter (#TCOT) this is the live stream of all posts on twitter that feature the hashtag #TCOT so that we can follow along. You'll see big names like Michelle Malkin, Drudge Report, Instapundit, and thousands of little bloggers and activists as well. The fun really starts when the elected officials, like Bill Frist and members of Congress, start posting and engaging.

Watch as long as you want, it will keep updating and you'll merely have to choose "refresh" to see the new ones as they flow in. When you see a tweet that you want to respond to ... now we're going to dive in.

Press "reply" under the tweet that you liked, disliked or want to comment on. Your twitter homepage will come up, you now have 140 character to say anything you want. Because you hit "reply" you'll see the original person's profile with an @ in front of it. That creates a reply to that person ... but everyone can still read it!

Hit "update" when done with your comment or reply. Now, you need to follow some people so they'll follow you. Go to Follow-TCOT and follow this person. It's a listing mechanism to make following easier. I think they have to follow you back to make it real easy, so we'll just follow today and come back in Stage Two tomorrow.

5. Lastly here are your first 15 people to follow: As you go to each link choose follow and then come back for the next link. Obviously multiple tabs in your internet explorer is going to help make this quick work. Follow all 15, anything they post will appear on your timeline on your profile, the rest of the #TCOT posts you'll have to watch on the search.twitter site. Anytime you see a post on search.twitter that engages you, follow that person too. You'll get followed back by most and the goal is to pick up 100 followers in the next week!

In addition to following @redcountyblogs and @redcounty, you will want to follow:


More tomorrow, check back in, leave comments below especially if what I said doesnt work or doesn't make sense. Thanks

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From the Governor - Merry Christmas (cut your budgets)

Posted by Steve Dalton | 12/25/2008 5:11 AM

CATEGORY: Local Elections and Party, News

TAGS: , ,

 

Mitch Daniels keeps budget cutting pressure on

Merry Christmas, by the way, here in Indiana Governor Daniels is keeping the pressure on all levels of government to cut and restrain their budgets. With a $1 billion projected shortfall for the state, he is moving quickly to cut and privatize and slash if needed. At the same time he's also putting substantial pressure on local communities to further cut budgets that were slashed earlier this year.

From the Post Tribune:

Gov. Mitch Daniels makes sense when he says it would be best for all public employees in Indiana to forego a raise next year, some local officials say -- but don't expect it to happen.

The governor announced earlier this week that he thinks the move would be best because few tax payers in the private sector will get raises, so public employees should show solidarity and also help ease the tax burden. Reports have already announced that the state budget is going to fall short by almost $1 billion, which has led Daniels to look at possible cuts to the state budget.

Valparaiso Mayor Jon Costas said that although he agrees with the governor in part, Valparaiso has already managed to cut $140,000 from its 2009 budget without having to take away raises.

"I think he's wise; we have to be really careful in the next year or two," Costas said. "(But) we will stick with the 2009 budget, which we feel pretty strongly about."

Costas also pointed out that elected officials in the city had agreed to not accept a raise. The mayor did say, though, that the city would consider a pay freeze for the 2010 budget if it needed to.

Porter County Councilman Dan Whitten had mixed feelings about the governor's announcement, saying that he agreed with the concept of withholding raises when the economy is doing poorly. Whitten had voted against raises for county employees for next year's budget. The raises were approved.

"When we ask people to tighten up their belts, I think we need to do the same," he said.

However, Whitten was offended by the governor asking local governments to cut their budgets even more, when the state has already put financial pressures on them through the cap on property taxes, he said. Also, by making the announcement so late in the year, there's no time for the Porter County Council to go back and change the budget, Whitten said. Most of the council members are out of town on vacation.

"I think a lot of what the governor does is, quite frankly, grandstanding," Whitten said.

Local governments could also save money if they were paid their tax money on time, Terry Hufford, president of the Portage Township School Board, said. A majority of the taxing units in Northwest Indiana have had to take out loans because tax dollars were delayed and then they have to pay interest on those loans.

Hufford said that if the state made certain it was on time with payments, giving out raises wouldn't be a big deal.

Hufford also said that he thinks the focus should be on accountability and making sure employees are earning their pay, instead of just looking at it as raises as a whole.

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Cartoon of the Day

Posted by Steve Dalton | 12/22/2008 5:10 AM

CATEGORY: FEATURE, Policy

TAGS: , , ,

 
From Carpe Diem - my favorite economic blogger that I read every morning.

ss.jpg

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Conservatives Attempt to Collaborate... Herding Jello

Posted by Steve Dalton | 12/07/2008 11:58 AM

CATEGORY: FEATURE, Rebuild/Fixing our movement, Social Networks - Blogosphere

TAGS: , , ,

 
I'm sure many of you have been following conservative "movements" over the last month.  I won't suggest this is a complete list by any shake, and if I'm missing some groups feel free to list in comments below. 

letsgetthisright.jpgLet's Get This Right - started during summer of 2008 by group of pro-McCain bloggers.  McCain's campaign did a terrible job working with the roughly 600 bloggers that were supporting his campaign.  But this group decided to try and connect to more conservatives, under the theory that some conservatives were boycotting McCain.  All of this kinda washed away when McCain chose Sarah Palin.  The groups growth slowed as the election matured into the late fall, the economy faltered causing McCain's numbers to freefall, and Republicans had to grapple with a dismal election result in early November.  I'm sure there are other groups like this one, please list in comments and I'll gladly update.

grassroots1.jpgDontgo Movement - also known as #dontgo since the movement started during the summer again when Congressional Republicans decided to stage a debate-in even though Speaker Pelosi sent everyone home and turned off the lights.  Republicans felt that $4.00 gasoline was too much and something needed to be done.  One Congressman actually used his blackberry to post to twitter from the floor of the House.  The #dontgo hashtag on twitter was born and quickly became quite the rage with websites set up for petitions, and videos being shot and posted on Youtube ... on and on.  The question is how to harness that activity and energy going forward?

Rebuild_logo.jpgRebuild the Party - I believe this effort was launched immediately after our dismal loss last month and had leaders including Patrick Ruffini from NextRight.  Today's site suggests that over 6500 people have signed the petition to endorse the 10 point plan, including two of the men running for RNC chair.   Immediately the effort grew enough in a matter of days that a ning network was set up at Rebuild the Party Social Network, again the problem will be that though the ideas are great ... and I'm an endorser, once a chairman is selected by the RNC, will they actually be able to get a bunch of old line power brokers to look at themselves as the problem?  When was the last time anyone voted themselves into oblivion?

This last week, we saw the surprise splash activity with Top Conservatives on Twitter, when Red County author Micheal Patrick Leahy     decided to make a list of conservatives on twitter.  This first was posted entirely manually at Top Conservatives on Twitter on blogger, then moved within days as the list reached over 600 people and become automated, to Top Conservatives on Twitter Official Site.  Well guess what?  As in each of these quick growing movements on the conservative side there's some in-fighting and scrapping.  Some members believe that there are politicians and publishers using the list to grow existing subscribers or raise money.  Others are frustrated that anyone on the list would do anything except follow everyone on the list.  Guess what, the magic of twitter has always been the democratized nature of interaction.  You follow those you find interesting.  You unfollow those that you don't.

I'll stop there for now, go ahead and list others that I've missed.  Want to know my beef?  Nah, the engagement is well worth it for me.  As conservatives we need to talk, listen, debate, and get over our own little petty egos.  We need to talk to some liberals, and progressives, and Ron Paulers and Libertarians ... we better since they know grass roots better than we do. 

Here's my challenge to you all, at least those that read.  Engage and debate, but do so knowing that one day you'll need to work together to win elections.  Argue and cajole, but remember that when you see these people face to face, it's quite a thrill to meet men and women committed to our nation for all the right reasons.  Sure, they may disagree a bit with you.  Support someone for RNC, and for rebuilding the party, talk to you own state RNC members, but when or if they don't respond dig in and start making plans to get better state leadership.  The states are a mess too gang. 

Feel free to tell me I'm wrong, but know that I still look forward to seeing you in person, and shaking your hand as a patriot and friend. 

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Twitter for Conservatives - Practical Social Media

Posted by Steve Dalton | 12/03/2008 5:35 AM

CATEGORY: SPOTLIGHT (Editorial Staff Only), Social Networks - Blogosphere

TAGS: , , , ,

 
twitter-bird.jpgI posted the entry below to one of my real estate sites - Active Rain - because RE.net was one of the first communities to really "get it" when it came to social media. If you haven't taken the time to join, or are just using a feed system where you pump your posts on twitter but never really engage, then today is the day to get off your duff.  Engage and interact.

Blatant Self-promotion: Follow me on twitter.

No beating around the bush here, I'm on a bit of a campaign to surpass 2,000 followers (or 2,500 for that matter) on Twitter and would appreciate any adds today.

My Twitter Profile: Daltonsbriefs.

For those that follow issues political, of course I do, you may find the list Top Conservatives on Twitter to be quite interesting ... with some great writers worth following.  As you can see, I'm falling a bit behind since I'm at the 2,000 following ceiling and can't even follow the whole list.  I'm hoping that if I pass the 2,000 followers level then the Twitter gods will let me follow more people.


UPDATE: You can follow all Red County content via Twitter at twitter.com/redcountyblogs.

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Northwest Indiana cities and towns

Posted by Steve Dalton | 12/01/2008 9:37 AM

CATEGORY: Local Elections and Party, News, Policy

TAGS: , , , , ,

 

Political News in Northwest Indiana

With the election over, much of the angry talk is gone for the next year, and we can focus on positive good government debate and interaction here. It's been a while since I've done a general rundown of political news in the Region, if I've missed some stories, put in comments below and we'll graduate good ones to full posts this week.

From Merrillville Howard Fink promoted at Town of Merrillville

A hearty congratulations to my good friend, Howard Fink, with the announcement of his promotion at the Town of Merrillville to Town Administrator. It looks like he'll have the opportunity to move to full Town Manager in the future depending on the budget and the council's opinions of his work.

From Valparaiso - Valpo parks looking for pathway upgrades

Another good friend, Chuck Lehman has presented a proposal for reviewing the pathways thru Valparaiso. Even with budgets being tight, and property taxes capped by law, Valparaiso continues to invest in parks and recreation.

From Portage - Marquette Plan rewarded for excellence

"Accepting the award on behalf of the project sponsors was Mayor Olga Velazquez of the City of Portage, a board member of the Northwestern Indiana Regional Planning Commission." I believe that this park and the Valpo busline into Chicago are the first visible effects on Porter County of the $3.5 million a year they send to the RDA.

From Cool story about the East Chicago Sewage Treatment Plant

You read that right.

East Chicago's sewage treatment plant works so well that salmon spawn in it's tanks!

People think that the environment is getting worse, but stories like this just go to show that, little by little, it is really a lot better than it used to be, all thanks to technology.

From Crown Point - The race for who will get new plant

"Mayor David Uran is noncommittal about the possibility of the county seat as a location for the future home of a Northwest Indiana garbage-to-ethanol plant.

Uran said he had the opportunity to see firsthand what the Lake County Solid Waste Management District would be voting on, and as a voting member, he wanted to take the opportunity to do so.

Uran called the plant "impressive" and "odorless."

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Update from the Region - NW Indiana

Posted by Steve Dalton | 11/21/2008 7:47 AM

CATEGORY: Local Elections and Party

TAGS: , ,

 

Politics in the Region


Retort: Ron Paul supporters aren't foolish - a back and forth debate occurring on Porter County Politics about the impact of Ron Paul supporters in the GOP going forward. In Lake County the Ron Paul supporters actually had one state rep. race they worked hard to win, losing but doing so with a lot of compliments and impressed pundits.

Jerimiah Wright has a franchise in Gary - Our most outspoken Lake County watcher, Buzz is keeping an eye on all the craziness in Indiana's most Chicago-like county.

Mini-Depression and the battle for economic common sense - From Red County, an open thread on economic solutions that don't involve bailouts or handouts of government cash.

Barack Obama Vacates Senate Seat. What Happens Now? - Kevin Tracy is probably the most widely read blogger from the region, having been very involved with the Huckabee campaign as a blogger. He is supporting Chip Saltsman for GOP chair and is keeping an eye on the ladder picks in Illinois as Obama moves up.

70% of voters show up at the polls in Lake County - Dan from Prayeramedic and 390Days is wondereing what it would take to get Republicans to be excited again? If 2008 was a vote against liberalism, and therefore very little excitetement, what is it going to take to get Republicans and Conservatives excited enough to go grass roots and online and get involved?

I'll check in again in December with another Region Review from Northwest Indiana. We may have gone blue up here, but there's a glimmer or spark of hope that this can be a turning point.

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Mini-Depression and the battle for economic common sense

Posted by Steve Dalton | 11/15/2008 6:38 PM

CATEGORY: Congress, Policy

TAGS: ,

 
While reading a post by Robert Reich tonite it occurred to me that 2009 will feature a battle of epic proportions, with the now styled Mini-Depression at center stage.

On the one side economists and the Democrat Congress, demanding quick action to drastically increase government spending on infrastructure, roads, highways and rail to create jobs and pump money into consumer's hands. 

"First, understand that the main problem right now is not the supply of credit. Yes, Wall Street is paralyzed at the moment because the bursting of the housing and other asset bubbles means that lenders are fearful that creditors won't repay loans. But even if credit were flowing, those loans wouldn't save jobs ...This means bailing out Wall Street or the auto industry or the insurance industry or the housing industry may at most help satisfy creditors for a time and put off the day of reckoning, but industry bailouts won't reverse the downward cycle of job losses."

Ok, so far we agree, which is hard to believe since Reich comes from so far away to get even here.  Now from my perspective he shows his true big government colors:

 So the crucial questions become (1) how much will the government have to spend to get the economy back on track? and (2) what sort of spending will have the biggest impact on jobs and incomes?

The answer to the first question is "a lot." Given the magnitude of the mess and the amount of underutilized capacity in the economy-- people who are or will soon be unemployed, those who are underemployed, factories shuttered, offices empty, trucks and containers idled -- government may have to spend $600 or $700 billion next year to reverse the downward cycle we're in.

No, that isn't the only option.  The biggest job creators are small businesses, who are being taxed and regulated into oblivion by the very big government that is now wanting to increase taxes to throw more money at the old business models that are cutting employees.

How about a totally different approach:

Eliminate capital gains taxes - giving an immediate boost to stock prices

Reinvigorate FHA and Homeownership Society concepts, we don't need to bailout bond holders who bought foolish sub-prime backed securities, we need to encourage home buyers to buy the inventory sitting in our communities.   What we need are more buyer, and now. Did you know that right when we most needed buyers for homes this summer that President Bush and Congress eliminated one program that used "zero" government dollars to let buyers purchase with no money down?  Why?  because it made them all think they were "regulating away" risk.  We need buyers now!

Eliminate "mark to market" so that assets aren't being brutalized during this mini-depression.

Stop the $700 Billion bailout, Paulson is already changing the plan, and it's too dangerous going into the new administration to allow Treasury unfettered ability to spend money on whatever they want.

Where Reich is calling for $800 billion or more to build highways and bridges, much of this is already in numerous spending bills and merely marooned by regulations, red tape, and envirnmental largess ... call for a regulatory halt while we unwind our nationa economic crisis.
 
Make insurance and healthcare expenditures tax deductible for all businesses and entrepreneurs.  Give tax incentives to banks for loaning lines of credit to small businesses under $1,000,000.  Don't go all regulatory like CRA on this, they can choose to pay less taxes or pay what they're paying now, get this "big daddy government" thing out of your heads. 

Lastly, remember the post 9-11 boom of SUV buyers, mainly because businesses were allowed to write off these purchases in full?  Do the same for 2009 ... any automobile purchased in 2009 under $100,000 should be allowed a 100% write off to the business.  This will create buyers, we need buyers.
 
Now .. That's Change.  Change you can believe in.  Change that creates jobs.   Change that sells houses and cars.  Change that gets banks to lend again or get out of the way.  

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Sign "no auto industry bailout" at #dontgo

Posted by Steve Dalton | 11/12/2008 3:52 PM

CATEGORY: Congress, FEATURE

TAGS: , ,

 
Remember the excitement of this summer's #dontgo Revolution?  When Republican Congressional members debated in the dark, demanding that Speaker Pelosi let them vote on oil drilling.  She kept the lights and microphones off, so technology kicked in and members with phones twittered using the #dontgo hashtag to get the word out to all of us.

Well that same group, of dedicated conservative activists, #dontgo movement is hosting a petition drive to say "NO AUTO INDUSTRY BAILOUT" to Congress, the President and the President-elect.
bailoutbutton.gif
Go to #dontgo Movement to sign the petition and while there check out the activities and action network.



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Gen X and Millenials want change ... in GOP

Posted by Steve Dalton | 11/07/2008 7:10 PM

CATEGORY: FEATURE, Social Networks - Blogosphere

TAGS: , ,

 
I just wrote on Porter County Politics a post featuring Media Lizzy's insistent post:

We were deprived of knowing Martin Luther King, Jr. and Bobby Kennedy and JFK. Because these great men were assassinated. We remember when Sadat died. We have watched as Baby Boomers ran in fear from every major challenge, shirked every responsibility, talked the talk about social justice but refused to let go of their youth. They fought in a botched war (Vietnam) and are determined to make Iraq just as awful - they don't care how many die in my generation -- they just want us to feel their pain.

Here's my thought - and it's shared by many, if not expressed outright - Screw Off. Take your obsession with your wasted youth and get the hell out of leadership. Baby Boomers in the federal bureaucracy - whether in Congress, the White House, or on K Street - are trapped in a nightmare of their own making. GROW UP.


Have you checked out the even younger crew than Media Lizzie and myself at NextGenGOP?

  1. The Age of Participation fueled Obama's victory. A huge part of coming back in 2010 is going to rely on our ability to capitalize on new media and Web 2.0.  As Adam Nagourney notes, the 2008 election was unique because the Internet played such a role in its outcome.  Much of Obama's victory was empowered by his innovative use of the Internet.  The folks behind Rebuild the Party have laid out a very comprehensive plan detailing how we can regain the edge online.
  2. We Need to Win Back Young Voters. Patrick Ruffini points out that although there was not a significant increase in turnout among young voters, Barack Obama was able to blow out John McCain among these voters.  Such a blowout, Ruffini demonstrates, made a huge difference in the final electoral margins.  The Republican Party must earn back the support of young voters in order to get back to electoral success.




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LIVE BLOGGING: Election Day 2008

Posted by Editorial Staff | 11/05/2008 7:00 AM

CATEGORY: LIVE BLOGGING

TAGS: , , ,

 
RED COUNTY (Indiana): Election Day 2008(11/03/2008) 
Powered by: CoveritLive
9:07
EDITOR:  New to the Live Blog format, but here goes from Porter County Indiana.

Some resources for Indiana breaking news:
Hoosier Access
Porter County Politics (my own site)

I'll post more links here in updates

9:12
EDITOR:  Obama wins Dickville Notch NH 15-6 breaking at 12:09 ET
9:28
EDITOR:  It's almost midnight in NW Indiana, shutting down for the next couple hours, then up and grabbing news and info for readers on this site. If you get election news, or stories of election fraud and problems, please leave comments
9:47
EDITOR:  I've embeded this same live blog on a couple different sites, so i better link back to the original at Red County - Porter County Indiana - Northwest Indiana
9:48
[Comment From Briefs]
Looks like everyone is leaving the Obama grandmother story alone. Probably classy and off-limits
9:49
EDITOR:  Real Clear Politics:

Final polling from Indiana
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/in/indiana_mccain_vs_obama-604.html
9:52
EDITOR:  Real Clear Politics -

The untold story outside of Indiana is that Governor Mitch Daniels is polling at 15-20 points over his Democrat challenger. An interesting counter trend it would be if the Governor won by 20 points and McCain only won by 2 points in the same election.
9:53
EDITOR:  FROM THE CHICAGO SUN TIMES:

McCain makes final push in Indiana
By Abdon M. Pallasch
November 3, 2008

INDIANAPOLIS -- "We've got the 'mo,' we've got the momentum, my friends, we've got it!" Republican presidential candidate John McCain shouted to a crowd of 5,000 red-shirted fans on an airport tarmac here this afternoon.

It was the fourth of seven stops McCain is making in seven battleground states in a marathon last day of campaigning -- most of them on tarmacs with the sound of planes overhead and the smell of jet fuel exhaust in the air.

His running-mate Sarah Palin was simultaneously speaking just across the Illinois border in Dubuque, Iowa, on her own last-day marathon of swing states.


The whole story is here.
9:55
EDITOR:  It was good to finally see Governor Mitch Daniels join him on the dais for the speech today. In GOP circles there were far too many people worried that the Governor had done a backroom deal with Obama. Politics makes for foolish stories.
9:57
EDITOR:  Governor's Race latest polls from Real Clear Politics in Indiana:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/governor/in/indiana_governor-937.html
9:57
EDITOR:  Predictions for Congressional Races in Indiana:

Not a single one will change hands tomorrow.
9:59
EDITOR:  Indiana Supreme Court ruling tonite ... yes tonite ... on election eve with County Clerk in Marion County wanting to play games with ballots

http://reasonbellpundit.blogspot.com/2008/11/indiana-supreme-court-ruling-on.html
10:26
EDITOR:  (H/T Erick Erickson at RedState.com)

http://www.electionjournal.org/2008/11/03/voter-suppression-phone-calls-in-indiana/

Voter Suppression Phone Calls in Indiana

November 3, 2008 by Soren

Fox28 in South Bend, Indiana has a report of an attempt to mislead voters.   After a voter told the caller that she supported John McCain, the caller said that her vote had been recorded, and she didn't need to vote on election day:

She says she received a phone call from a woman claiming to be an elections official.

"This young lady was saying they're doing something new and something different and I don't have to go out and vote," she said.

The caller said people could now vote by phone and asked her who she wanted to vote for.

The woman said John McCain.

She was then told her vote was cast and she didn't need to vote Tuesday.
3:10
Briefs:  Polls are open on east coast, and most of Indiana, not up here in NW Indiana though, we're on Central Time. Less than 12 hours until most of Indiana closes and we have our first returns
3:12
EDITOR:  Hoosier Access is running an open election thread for Indiana as well:

http://hoosieraccess.com/blog/2008/11/04/election-day-open-thread/
3:17
EDITOR:  From the Post Tribune in NW Indiana this morning: (I'll be at Republican headquarters in Valparaiso on LIncolnway by about 7 p.m.)

"After all, election night, -- Northwest Indiana style -- can't pass without good, old-fashioned political rehashing, celebrating or commiserating.

In Gary, Barack Obama supporter Mayor Rudy Clay is opening the Indiana Room at the Genesis Convention Center at 5th Avenue and Broadway at 6 p.m. for what he bills as "the alternative Grant Park" party.

Sponsored by the Gary Committee for Change, the celebration will include a CNN broadcast of election returns on big screens, vote tallies and surprise guests.

In Porter County, most politicos watch the votes come in at the Porter County Government Center in downtown Valparaiso.

Then, Democrats will repair to the Valparaiso American Legion Post and Republicans will head to their headquarters on Lincolnway."


3:22
EDITOR:  From Post Tribune:

Early voting in Porter County ended with a record turnout of 15,000 absentee votes, according to an official.

But Kathy Kozusek, the Democratic director of the Porter County voter registration office, said she still expects a huge turnout today.

Even though 15,000 people voted, she said, that still leaves another 80,000 registered to vote.

She also gave a warning to people who are unregistered. Kozusek said she had heard some groups telling unregistered voters to go ahead and vote on an absentee ballot. However, unregistered voters cannot vote and will just take ballots away from people who are registered.

Also, anyone who is in line at 6 p.m. will get to vote, she said. Kozusek also stressed that anyone who has moved since they last registered needs to ask for a VRG 412 form or otherwise they will be fraudulently voting.

3:49
EDITOR:  

Just a quick note to remind that Steve Walsh will have local election coverage from Northwest Indiana tomorrow. I'm sure the other hosts will have tons of election coverage with Vocalo's unique user-created twist on 89.5 FM, so make sure to listen on your radio or stream the audio via your computer.

Want to do some reporting from tomorrow historic election? Sign up for a Vocalo.org account, register your cell phone number and report what's happening from your polling places around Northwest Indiana.

No matter who you vote for tomorrow, make sure to get out and vote. From Chris Hedges NWI Region Life.

Listen for local election coverage tomorrow on Vocalo.org

3:56
EDITOR:  

Line in Hendricks County

Update from Hendricks County, Indiana.

Lincoln Twshp - Precinct 2
Brownsburg, Indiana
Polling location: American Legion Hall, Main Street

As a Precinct Commiteeman and my wife Ronna being my Vice, we were there this morning to open the poll and get things set up (coffee for workers, breakfast... etc.)

The line started forming at 5:20am. When the poll officially opened at 6am this morning, there were more than 60/70 people in line. The line wrapped the room and stretched out into the parking lot.

It was an incredible sight. Never before in my life time have I seen a line like that to start before the poll opened!

More throughout the day...

4:06
EDITOR:  In my letter to the editor last week, I addressed the silly claim by the Indiana Daily Student that Mitch Daniels is not "running on a platform of serious change or upheaval." The last four years have been all about change. But there is another aspect to that editorial that deserves further examination.

From Hoosier Access, a letter addressing attacks on Lt. Gov. Becky Skillman's experience.
4:09
EDITOR:  Internal McCain Campaign Memo released with some good information...

McCAIN CAMPAIGN MEMO:
READING THE EXIT POLLS
BILL McINTURFF, INTERNAL POLLSTER
Mon Nov 03 2008 16:53:14 ET

As we have seen in previous election cycles, the exit poll results do leak early and that ends up influencing the coverage of the race before even the first state polls close at 6:00 PM Eastern.

However, we want to remind the campaign that the media's own post-election study of the exit polls in 2004 showed that the exit polls overstate the Democratic candidate's support.
4:15
EDITOR:  I'll be keeping an eye on Twitter Vote Report today too:

John Schlafer: #votereport L:southport library #zip: 46227 #wait:zero I'm an Obama poll watcher. Come vote! 2 minutes ago in Indianapolis, IN 46227, USA via Twitter
4:32
EDITOR:  Senator Obama announces that he'll be driving over from Chicago into NW Indiana today for some stops, one last effort to grab our state. This state has been red a long, long time.
4:33
EDITOR:  30,000 workers at 5,400 precincts in Indiana
http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081104/NEWS/81104001
4:35
EDITOR:  

Luke Russert, special correspondent for NBC and MSNBC, will cover the Presidential election live from the campus of Indiana University.

Russert, who has been covering youth trends on college campuses across America as Decision 2008 unfolds, will broadcast live, on-location, around campus on Election Day as IU students react to the election and the results.

Coverage begins with the 'Today Show' and will continue throughout the day on both networks. Russert will continue to broadcast live throughout the evening, including at an election night party at the Indiana Memorial Union at 6pm, hosted by the Indiana Memorial Union Board.

This Presidential election is said to be the most exciting in recent history and has engaged college students in unprecedented numbers. You can see that excitement first hand on Election Day at Indiana University - watch Luke Russert on NBC and MSNBC to catch all of the action!

4:46
EDITOR:  Jenny Hertel: #votereport #47459 #wait:40 but line was getting very long as we left. #good 1 minute ago in Indiana 47459, USA via Twitter

Not sure where 47459 is, have to look it up. Most of Indiana in on Eastern time and opened almost two hours ago. The rest is on Central time and just opened 45 mins ago
5:33
EDITOR:  Checked out 6 precincts in Valparaiso 30 mins ago, no lines all running smoothly
5:34
EDITOR:  More from Indiana Conservative Hardball and Hendricks County precinct:

Line starting to die down...?

Update from Hendricks County, Indiana.

Lincoln Twshp - Precinct 2
Brownsburg, Indiana
Polling location: American Legion Hall, Main Street

Well, the line has started to die down... people were lined up 60 deep at some point, to vote this morning.

At about 7:30am this morning, the line shorten enough to get everyone inside the polling place.

In a precinct that tends to be about 70% Republican and a voting trend of about 30%, this is pretty cool to witness.
5:42
EDITOR:  It is easy to observe every election day that voting technology has progressed a LOT faster than the people who are supposed to run it. http://www.electionjournal.org/twitter-voter-fraud/

IN ruling says voters may be photographed against their will in polling places

5:45
EDITOR:  #voterfraud Voter suppression phone calls in Indiana http://tinyurl.com/6g7zum

Which sadly appears to be happening on both sides
5:49
EDITOR:  
scottsands: #votereport #46240 Newstalk 1430 WXNT-AM, Indiana's Election Headquarters, tweets all day Tuesday and Tuesday night. http://www.WXNT.com
6:50
EDITOR:  
chriswebb: http://twitpic.com/jvzw - Line inside my polling location in Fishers, Indiana #votereport
6:50
EDITOR:  
mcintosh33: #votereport Hamilton County, Indiana wasn't prepared for the volume of people showing up in the morning, lots of confused voters.
6:56
EDITOR:  

Will Obama campaign be audited by Feds?

From the Foundry:

According to federal election law, any presidential campaign that participates in public financing is automatically audited after an election. When Barack Obama broke his promise to the American people, by forgoing the public financing system, his campaign became the first since public financing became law to have a chance of not being audited. Federal election law does still allow the FEC to audit a presidential campaign that does not participate public financing, but at least four of the six FEC Commissioners must first vote to pursue an investigation 'for cause.' There is no doubt that there is great 'cause' to be concerned about Obama's fundraising efforts ...

Morning Bell: the most fraudulent election

7:01
EDITOR:  
Kathy Glick Miller: #votereport things are #good in #46526 with #wait:0. Time from car, check-in, vote, back to car: 5 minutes.

reported about 1 hour ago
from Goshen, IN 46526
via Twitter


7:01
EDITOR:  
Chris Webb: I'm next to check in. Photo ID in hand... #votereport

reported about 1 hour ago
from Indianapolis, IN
via Twitter
7:02
EDITOR:  
From my hometown: Greenwood Indiana
James Cochran
: #votereport #46143 precinct 38 virtually no wait. Precint 22 very long wait.

reported 7 minutes ago
from Greenwood, IN 46143
via Twitter
7:05
EDITOR:  Roundup from Howey Politics on Indiana precincts:

LAKE COUNTY TRIPLES EARLY VOTING: A tumultuous early voting season ended at noon Monday in Lake County when Merrillville resident Troy Williams arrived at the end of a line of that extended through the hallways and spilled down the front entrance stairs outside the Lake County Government Complex (Times of Northwest Indiana). "I didn't want to be waiting three or four hours on Election Day," Williams said, although he still had several hours before he could finally enter the building, fill out the necessary form and cast a ballot at one of the 10 electronic voting machines set up in the back of the building's crowded atrium. Some 34,394 or more than 11 percent of the county's total of registered voters had cast ballots in person by late Sunday at early voting sites in Crown Point, Gary, Hammond and East Chicago, and several thousand more cast early votes Monday or by paper ballot. That total in early voting is nearly triple the early and absentee balloting in the 2004 presidential election.

ONLY MINOR GLITCHES: Voting appears to be going smoothly in Indiana. Three polling precincts opened late in Indianapolis due to late arriving inspectors. Clerk Beth White said those problems were quickly resolved and her staff is dealing with only minor problems. Lake County voting appears to be off to a smooth start. (Howey Politics Indiana)

LAKE COUNTY TO COUNT IN CENTRAL LOCATION: Six months after its primary-day embarrassment, Lake County has taken steps to avoid a repeat of its slow tally, though its ballot counting could still be delayed by the volume of votes and the way absentee votes will be counted (Gannett News Service). Lake County election officials say increased staff and more machine counters are some of the changes that will enable them to have 98 percent of the vote counted by 11 p.m. EST today. "I'm sure hoping so," said Nicholas Gasparovic, assistant director of the Lake County Board of Elections. "The pure numbers in this are just unbelievable." Northwest Indiana's Lake County is still the state's only urban county that counts its absentee ballots in a central location. That's slower than counting them at multiple precincts, according to Secretary of State Todd Rokita. The county is expected to vote heavily for Democrat Barack Obama because it's a Democratic area, has a significant black population and abuts Obama's hometown of Chicago. The county cast 8 percent of the state's total presidential vote in 2004 and 10 percent of its Democratic presidential primary vote this year. Rokita said he's not going to judge Lake County's decision, because it could have good reason for wanting a central location, one close to the county's bipartisan election board, which can handle any disputes. "The fact of the matter is, counties have up to 10 days to legally report their results to us," Rokita said. "And I am not going to sacrifice fairness or accuracy for speed."

ROKITA SAYS 'EYES OF THE WORLD ON US': Rokita said he's spoken privately with leaders in Lake County and other parts of the state in a "checking-in kind of way" and reminded all that they are Hoosiers first before being Republicans or Democrats (Indianapolis Star). "The eyes of the world are going to be on us," Rokita said, "so it's a chance for us to shine."

92K VOTE EARLY IN INDIANAPOLIS: Early votes in Marion County In-person early votes: 73,550. Early ballots requested: 25,859. Early ballots returned: 16,748. Registered voters: 697,592. Hamilton County: In-person early votes: 23,997. Early ballots requested: 9,152. Early ballots returned: 8,317. Registered voters: 167,927. Johnson County: In-person early votes: 7,759. Early ballots requested: 3,012. Early ballots returned: 2,529. Registered voters: 92,666. Hendricks County: In-person early votes: 11,970. Early ballots requested: 4,359. Early ballots returned: 3,967. Registered voters: 93,886. In-person early votes: 6,113. Early ballots requested: 1,971. Early ballots returned: 1,755. Registered voters: 38,500.

LONG WAIT IN KOKOMO:
Sources in Kokomo say there are one to two hour waits at a number of precints this morning. (Howey Politics Indiana)

HUGE TURNOUT EXPECTED IN MADISON COUNTY: Unprecedented turnout for early voting means nearly 12 percent of registered Madison County voters completed ballots before polls open Tuesday (Anderson Herald-Bulletin). Interest in in-person voting has risen in the days leading up to the election. On Saturday alone, 595 completed absentee ballots at the Madison County Government Center, and the final 278 ballots submitted there Monday brought the final tally to 6,055. Many people who waited two hours to vote Monday said they did so because of Election Day conflicts. "I have to work," said Brenda Sheller of Anderson. "This way I can enjoy the celebrations (Tuesday) night." The high number of in-person ballots and the 4,776 mail-in ballots received as of Monday add up to 10,831 or 11.7 percent of Madison County's 92,552 registered voters. That's compared to the past three presidential elections, which each brought about 6,000 total absentee ballots. Local election officials said participation on Election Day could result in record turnout. "It's going to be huge, the biggest election we've ever seen," said County Clerk Ludy Watkins. "The polls are going to be crowded, and people are just going to have to be patient."

19% VOTE EARLY IN VIGO COUNTY: About 15,000 registered voters in Vigo County had cast an absentee ballot in four satellite voting sites -- nearly 19 percent of the 79,413 registered voters in the county -- prior to the close of absentee balloting at noon Monday (Terre Haute Tribune-Star).

WHIPLASH COURT RULINGS: Conflicting court rulings handed down Monday gave Marion County election officials whiplash as they tried to keep up with a legal fight over how to handle absentee ballots challenged at the polls today (Indianapolis Star). But when the dust cleared, the upshot remained the same: If you've already cast an absentee ballot and your eligibility to vote is challenged today at your precinct, your ballot will be set aside until a bipartisan team can review it later this week. That was decided by a unanimous decision Monday evening by the Indiana Supreme Court, which sided with the Marion County Republican Party. The ruling brought quick criticism from county Democrats. It came less than two hours after an Indiana Court of Appeals panel, voting 2-1, issued a stay halting a Circuit Court ruling from taking effect. In its decision, the Supreme Court vacated the stay. The high court let stand Marion Circuit Judge Theodore Sosin's ruling Friday that the Election Board would violate Indiana law by telling poll workers to decide the merits of absentee challenges immediately.

LINES MOVE QUICKLY IN LAFAYETTE: Voters should have few problems regardless of which vote center they decide to visit around Tippecanoe County today. As of 7:15 a.m., many vote centers had short lines (Lafayette Journal & Courier). "There are lines, but nothing unmanageable," said Tippecanoe County Clerk Linda Phillips. At some vote centers, people "can just walk in and vote," she said. Even at vote centers with long lines, wait times were generally short.


7:09
EDITOR:  

From NW Indiana blogger Chris Hedges
A huge turnout in Northwest Indiana is expected on a nice election day

I went to my polling place this morning and spotted long lines of people waiting to vote -- cars were lined up waiting to park, other cars were lining 109th Street in Crown Point and parking across the street at Southlake Stables.

The local paper indicates early voters were waiting in lines up to 5 hours long in Gary and 2 hours in Crown Point, so I suspect we're going to see record voter turn out this election.

I'm going to swing by later in the morning after people have gone to work to see if the lines are shorter and cast my vote. Of course, if the lines remain long all day, make sure to get into line before 6 p.m. so that you'll be admitted to vote after the polls close.

7:14
EDITOR:  
  1. I headed out the door at 6:10 AM to go cast my ballot. I arrived at the polling location just three minutes later (it's just around the corner), and had to park at the Doctor's office across the street because the school parking lot was full and cars were already lined up along the street.

    The long line of waiting voters stretched outside the door, down the side of the building, across the parking lot, and began to wrap back around the parking lot.

    After waiting twenty minutes in line outside, a poll worker came outside to announce that voters from my District could go inside and begin voting. There were apparently two Districts voting at the same location, and the bulk of the turnout was for the other District. Several of us walked around the line and entered the school, walked across the gym to our District polling area, and joined a much smaller line.

    In less than ten minutes, I had ballot in hand, cast my vote for John McCain, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, Greg Zoeller for Indiana Attorney General, Tony Bennett for Superintendent of Public Instruction, Gabrielle Campo for U.S. Congress, and others.

    I have been a voter for two decades and have never had to wait in line to vote like I did today. This will surely be recorded as a record turnout in America. What does this say of our political climate today? I think it says that one side of the population wants to be a part of history while the other side wants to make sure that history doesn't stand in the way of what's best for the country. That's my view, anyway, and probably the view of most voters who cast their ballots similar to mine.

    History is a great thing. Being a part of history is a great thing. America is absolutely ready for the first Black (or is African-American the politcally correct term these days) or first female in the White House. More importantly, America is ready for the right person in the White House, and I encourage all Americans to cast their vote with their mind, not their heart.

7:15
EDITOR:  Will Indy end up with more voters than 100%? America is watching to see if Gary and Indy play election fraud.

  1. I got in line at 5:50 this morning. I left the polling location at 6:45. This was not so much because of numbers (though there were a lot) but because people were taking forever to punch all the buttons that they needed to punch. (I prefer the paper, fill in the dot ballots in Indy to the MicroVote machines in Hamilton Co.)

    There were certainly a lot there. The poll worker told me that 70 of the 700 registered voters were early/absentee voters through Friday. We will see an incredible voter turnout today. I just hope that Indy doesn't turn out to have a 110% turnout.


7:20
EDITOR:  From Blue Indiana

My polling location (almost all college students in Bloomington) had people out the door at 6:20am. The lines were moving fast, people were smiling -- even those without coffee in their hands -- and as I neared the voting area, I could hear one of the election officials yelling, "Hey Joe! Can she press the straight Republican ticket and then switch the presidential vote to Obama?"

In Comments: My brother is an election observer for Obama in Gary. He texted at 7am to say that the line was over an hour long, and he had just been sworn in as precinct judge.

Apparently Lake County officials have promised to count 98% of the total vote (including absentee) by 11pm Eastern Standard Time. Nicholas Gasparovic, assistant director of the Lake County Election Board, has estimated that 38,000 people had voted early (as of yesterday) and they've got "60 teams" counting the ballots, which is twice as many as in the primary (tip of the hat to both Indy Star and The Times of Northwest Indiana).

Lake County...will keep Indiana in the "Too close to call" category until at least 10pm or so. And I think we're kidding ourselves if we think that Rudy Clay will pass up an opportunity to put Obama over the top in the EC if he gets the chance. Watch for that!


7:43
EDITOR:  From Indy Star Election Thread:

10:29 AM -- Absentee ballots may delay results

By mid-morning, Marion County Clerk Beth White was still smiling - relieved that it is so-far, so-good for voters in Indianapolis.

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But there is a storm looming later today when an estimated 95,000 absentee ballots will be counted at polling sites around the city.

"That's a lot of ballots," said White. "It's going to be a late night."

White predicts it could be as late as 10 or 10:30 p.m. before results are in - about two hours later than the May primary election.
7:49
EDITOR:  Another update from Chris Faulkner in St. Joe County Indiana

Heavy turnout. Lots of new voters going to the wrong polling locatition
7:49
EDITOR:  Ok, need to check out for a few, keep submitting links and comments ... I'll moderate and respond in about an hour when I return.
7:53
EDITOR:  

Dcvotingbrendansmialowskigetty

A reader writes:

I know you will receive many stories today about horrific, horrendous and distressing voting experiences, offset by some that will be inspirational, heartwarming and perhaps even hilarious. I thought you might like to know that for some (lucky?) people, the process came off with no problems, no excitement, and no histrionics. I live in Charlotte, NC. I arrived at 6:00 a.m. and there were maybe 30-40 people on line already. Polls opened at 6:30 and I was done at 7:22.

7:58
EDITOR:  South Bend Tribune: Early voter count doubles in St. Joseph County :Twice as many votes.. http://tinyurl.com/5sytbp
11:48
EDITOR: