I don't know if it is panic, or an excess of confidence from his many rapid victories, but Obama is giving every sign that he has forgotten all the lessons that helped him win the general election.

Some time ago, I wrote "Why Obama Won, And Why He Is Losing Support Now", explaining why Obama won in the race, and the many factors helping to feed his rapid decline in popularity. And at the time, I was right. However, since then, Obama has tried to recover form his freefall, and, in the process, has managed to not only repeat an error from the campaign, but also forget many of the things he did right in the campaign.

The basic Obama tactic in recent days has been media saturation. Obviously, he has no openly stated why he is making so many appearances, but every pundit, right and left, agrees that his motives are obvious. While his various policies are enjoying little support, he himself remains popular, and so he is showing his face, trying to use his personal popularity to boost his policies.

The problem with this is twofold.

First, there is the problem we witnessed during the "European love fest" during the campaign. Though it is now forgotten, Obama's 24 hour coverage during his trip to Europe was not a media success. Though he remained ahead of McCain during the whole of his tour, his numbers actually dropped while he was receiving constant coverage. And the reason is easy to see. Even the most likable person is more likable in small doses. Anyone, when viewed nonstop, begins to grate on the nerves. And Obama, for all the press' gushing about his charisma, has a tendency to come across as a bit condescending and arrogant, not to mention prone to gaffes that would have been called "idiocy" had George Bush made them. Even at his best, he does not come across as a man with a brilliant grasp of political and economic issues. In short, by forcing himself into our houses hour after hour, he wears out his welcome, and only serves to remind us that he doesn't seem the right man to entrust with a large part of our economy.

Second, he also risks destroying his own personal popularity, rather than rescuing his policies. Obama won in large part by simply being "charismatic", as I pointed out ("The Candidate as Inkblot", "Expectations", "Protean Terminology"), he ran largely content free, either taking no position, taking all possible positions, or issuing statements that could be read any way the audience cared to do so. He subordinated policy to personal popularity. And in that way he won. However, he is now tying popularity and platform together, and that is a losing proposition. Countless politicians can tell him, no matter how much the public likes you, once they feel you are trying to push through a bad bill, they will turn on you and you will not easily regain that popularity. The best political manipulators have always known this, from Huey Long to FDR, they have known when they need to regroup, when to drop a losing position. When the resistance is too strong, the best politicians always put on a big smile, give a "statesman-like" speech, explaining how they are listening to the will of the people, and spend a time passing small, popular acts, building up the support they lost, so they can make a second run at their pet project later. Obama seems to not know how to do this, and he is pushing ahead despite popular resistance.

He is about to learn that, no matter how popular, no politician can win when enough of the public is opposed. We might complain that politicians don't listen, but in truth, they do ("Don't Blame the Politicians", "Why Term Limits Will Fail (And Should)", "The Single Greatest Weakness", ""Doing Something" Revisited",  "What We Deserve", "Special Cases"). We don't get big government because politicians want it, we get it because we each want our own specific big government change, and politicians cash in on our inconsistencies. And when we don't want something, and don't want ti with enough conviction, politicians listen to that too. And Obama is about to discover just how little he can accomplish when the public, and those facing immediate reelection, are opposed to his policies.

Nor can he resort to his previous subterfuge, forcing through unpopular measures under cover of "crisis". Having spent some time trying to convince us the worst is over thanks to his "stimulus", he cannot now claim there is yet another Bush-created crisis looming around the corner. And, even if he tried, the obvious reply would be to ask why his measures did not avert it, hardly the response he wants when asking us to trust him with our medical system.

So, frightened though I may be by the combination of Obama and a Democrat congress, and there is still plenty to fear, I think medical reform is dead in the water. And, better still, I think Obama is going to do himself untold damage trying to force it through despite all the indications it has already failed.